AI Is the Bubble to Burst Them All

The notion that AI is the ultimate tech bubble, one to burst them all. According to experts Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch, authors of "Bubbles and Crashes: The Boom and Bust of Technological Innovation", a reliable means of evaluating and understanding the AI mania involves applying their framework for determining whether a particular innovation leads to a bubble.

The framework considers four principal factors: (1) uncertainty, (2) pure plays, (3) novice investors, and (4) narratives around commercial innovations. Goldfarb and Kirsch identify and evaluate these factors and rank historical examples on a scale of 0 to 8—8 being the most likely to predict a bubble.

The application of this framework to generative AI reveals that it meets all four criteria: uncertainty is high due to the challenges in integrating AI into organizations; pure plays, such as Nvidia and OpenAI, dominate the market with their focus on building chips and AGI; novice investors, including retail traders on platforms like E-Trade and Robinhood, are pouring money into AI companies; and a compelling narrative, one of superintelligence and limitless possibilities, is driving investment.

Goldfarb notes that everyone is "something of a novice investor" when it comes to AI due to the new field and technology. He also highlights the power of coordinating narratives in inflating bubbles, as seen in aviation and broadcast radio history. The AI narrative, with its promises of curing cancer, automating jobs, and ushering in an age of superpowerful technology, is uniquely powerful in its bubble-inflating capacities.

The authors conclude that, yes, Goldfarb says, AI has all the hallmarks of a bubble. It hits all the right notes: uncertainty, pure plays, novice investors, and a great narrative. On their 0-to-8 scale, it's an 8—buyer beware.

Ultimately, as with any speculative market, there is always a risk that the promised benefits of AI may not materialize, leaving investors with significant losses.

the whole AI thing feels like a massive hype fest to me... everyone's jumping on the bandwagon and making outlandish claims about its capabilities it's like people are putting all their eggs in one basket and hoping for a superintelligent AI revolution but what if that doesn't happen? what if we just end up with more bureaucracy and regulatory issues around AI development

and the fact that novice investors are pouring money into these companies without fully understanding how it works is just crazy i mean, come on folks, do some research before you start investing your life savings in a company that claims to be working on an AGI

I'm getting a bit anxious about this whole AI bubble thing . The more I read about it, the more I think Goldfarb and Kirsch are onto something. It's like when everyone gets caught up in the hype of new tech trends and suddenly everyone wants to be an expert investor . I mean, who hasn't seen those viral videos of people making a killing on Robinhood?

The thing is, these companies like Nvidia and OpenAI are creating some crazy value proposition with AI, but it's still so early days. We're talking about technologies that can potentially cure cancer and automate jobs - sounds too good to be true, right? And then you've got the narratives around it being a game-changer for humanity... it's like they're playing with fire .

I think what worries me is that these AI companies are getting so much attention from novice investors who don't fully understand how their technology works. It's like, just because someone tweets about making money on AI stocks doesn't mean they know what they're doing . We need to take a step back and wait for some of this dust to settle before we get too caught up in the hype.

I think they're way off ... I mean, who doesn't want to believe in superintelligent machines solving all our problems? The narrative around AI is just too cool . And let's be real, Nvidia and OpenAI are innovators, not just trying to cash in on a fad. And novice investors? That's just the nature of tech investing - people get excited and throw their money at it . I think we're due for an AI boom, not bust !

um so i just saw this news about ai being like a tech bubble and i'm like what does that even mean? is it true? do i need to invest in my grandma's old computer or something lol. i don't get why people are so excited about machines doing everything for us, i mean whats the point of having a machine that can think if you're still gonna sit there all day playing games on your laptop . and btw is ai really gonna cure cancer? sounds too good to be true

ai bubble alert i think they're right, we're living in crazy times where tech companies are getting more funding than ever and it's hard to keep track of what's real and what's hype. those pure plays like nvidia and openai are definitely dominating the market and investors are throwing money at them willy-nilly. meanwhile, i'm not so sure about this superintelligence thing... sounds like a bunch of marketing fluff to me

Ugh I'm getting so worked up just thinking about this... Like what even is going on with all these AI companies right now? Everyone's just jumping in without knowing what they're doing and it's like a total bubble just waiting to pop! I mean, I get it, innovation is exciting but come on people, be real for once. Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch are literally the only ones sounding sane here and even they think AI has all the signs of a major bubble... It's like, what if none of this superintelligence stuff actually happens? What if we're just throwing money at empty promises like that was somehow going to make our lives better? The idea that everyone's some kind of novice investor when it comes to AI is laughable... we've been getting scammed by tech startups for years and now suddenly we're all experts? Give me a break. And don't even get me started on the narrative around commercial innovations... "curing cancer" anyone? It's like, chill out guys, we don't know what we're doing here...

I'm totally sold on this AI bubble theory! I mean, can you think of another tech trend where everyone's just hyped up on the "future" and throwing money at it? From Nvidia to OpenAI, these companies are like the Tesla of their industries - everyone wants a piece of the action. And let's be real, who doesn't want to "cure cancer" or automate jobs and become a superpower? The narrative is just so compelling! But at the same time, I'm also thinking about how this could all go wrong... like when aviation or broadcast radio were super hyped and then crashed. Buyer beware for sure!

I'm gettin' a bit worried about this whole AI thing . These experts are like "ya, we gotta watch out for bubbles" and I'm over here thinkin' same . The tech industry is already pretty wild and now you got these pure plays like Nvidia and OpenAI just killin' it . And don't even get me started on the novice investors – E-Trade and Robinhood are rakin' it in from AI stocks . But seriously, AI does seem to have all the makings of a bubble: uncertainty 'cause nobody really knows what's goin' down, pure plays dominatin' the market, newbie investors gettin' in on the action, and then there's this narrative about superintelligence... it's like they're paintin' a pretty picture but you know how that usually ends . Buyer beware, indeed

AI bubble 4 real ! I think they got a point tho, its like when everyone wanna buy Tesla stocks cuz Elon's all cool lol . And yeah, novice investors r pouring in dolla dolla bills into these AI companies w/o really knowin whats goin on . But at the same time, what's not to love about superintelligent machines that can do all our chores for us? . But seriously, its like Goldfarb said, everyone's a novice investor when it comes to AI cuz its new & they dont know whats up . So yeah, buyer beware indeed!

I gotta say , I'm not surprised to hear AI being called out as a bubble waiting to burst . We've seen it before with other tech trends like dot-coms and cryptocurrencies. The excitement around AI is real, but I think we need to take a step back and be cautious about getting caught up in the hype .

I mean, think about it - we're still trying to figure out how to integrate AI into our daily lives, let alone harness its full potential . And with companies like Nvidia and OpenAI dominating the market, it's easy to see why novice investors are flocking to these pure plays .

But at what cost? We need to make sure we're not ignoring the risks and challenges associated with AI - from job displacement to bias in decision-making . As Brent Goldfarb says, everyone is a novice investor when it comes to AI, and that's precisely why we need to be careful .

It's also worth noting that the narrative around AI is incredibly powerful , with promises of curing cancer, automating jobs, and unlocking superintelligent technologies . While these goals are exciting, they're not without risk either .

For me, the 0-to-8 rating from Goldfarb and Kirsch is a red flag . We need to be careful about getting caught up in the AI bubble and making sure we're prioritizing responsible innovation that benefits everyone .

AI bubble? I'm all over this ... I think Goldfarb and Kirsch have got it right. We're living in a tech fever dream where people are throwing money at anything with an AI label . And the narrative around superintelligence is just too good to be true . Like, who doesn't want cancer cured overnight or jobs automated? It sounds like science fiction, but hey, that's what makes it so appealing . The fact that Nvidia and OpenAI are pure plays dominating the market doesn't surprise me either . But what does concern me is how novice investors like retail traders on E-Trade and Robinhood are getting swept up in the hype without understanding the risks . Buyer beware, indeed!

I gotta agree, this AI thing feels like another bubble waiting to pop... I mean, have you seen the prices of those Nvidia chips? It's crazy! And the narrative around it being a game-changer is just that - a story, not fact. But hey, people love a good hype train, right? I'm not saying AI isn't cool tech, but let's keep our heads down and wait for some real-world results before getting all excited.

I'm literally shaking my head over this whole AI thing ! I mean, come on, these experts are basically saying we're living in some sort of bubble era and it's gonna burst... like, what even is the end goal here? We're just throwing money at companies that promise the world and deliver nothing but hype . And don't even get me started on those novice investors - I mean, seriously, how many people are actually understanding what they're getting into when they invest in AI companies? It's like everyone's caught up in this superintelligence craze and nobody's stopping to think about the consequences .

And what's with this narrative around curing cancer and automating jobs? Like, okay, sure those are cool promises, but at what cost? We're talking about a technology that's still in its infancy and we're throwing billions of dollars at it just because... why? . It's like we've lost sight of reality and are living in this bubble world where anything is possible and nothing makes sense .

I'm not saying AI can't be useful, but this whole thing feels so... exaggerated . We need to take a step back and think about what we're really getting ourselves into here. Buyer beware indeed

I'm low-key concerned about the whole AI bubble thing. It sounds like everyone's getting caught up in this super exciting narrative and forgetting to think critically about the actual tech itself . Novice investors jumping on the bandwagon without doing their due diligence is a recipe for disaster . And let's not forget, those big players like Nvidia and OpenAI are making most of the money – it's like they're playing the system . What if AI doesn't live up to all its promises? I mean, we've seen this kind of hype before with other tech trends ... It's time for some people to take a step back and assess what's really going on in the world of AI .

AI bubble? Yeah right, like every other tech thing "Buyer beware" indeed... or should I say "Investor beware"... because let's be real, who hasn't invested in a startup and thought they were going to change the world ?! It's all about hype and FOMO (fear of missing out)... and those narratives can get pretty wild! Like, superintelligence curing cancer? Sounds like a plot from a sci-fi movie . But hey, experts say it's an 8 on their bubble scale... that's a pretty strong bubble . Guess we'll just have to wait and see if AI delivers or fizzles out .

I'm totally down to earth about this whole AI thing... like, we need to be real for a second . The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that these "pure plays" (Nvidia and OpenAI) are just trying to create a hype around their tech to get investors on board . And let's be real, who hasn't been burned by some wild AI predictions in the past? Like, remember when self-driving cars were gonna revolutionize transportation? It never happened... or did it? Anyway, I'm not saying we shouldn't invest in AI research, but we need to keep our eyes on the ground and be aware of how fast this tech is advancing . We don't want to get caught up in a bubble that's gonna pop !

The whole AI thing feels like a classic case of FOMO (fear of missing out) to me... Everyone's trying to get in on the action without fully understanding what they're investing in . These "novice investors" are pouring money into companies without doing their due diligence, and it's only a matter of time before things come crashing down . The narrative around AI is pretty convincing, but let's not forget that it's also super hyped . Maybe we should take a step back and assess what we really know about the tech...

OMG AI bubble alert! I'm low-key freaking out right now . Like, Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch are totes correct about this one! I mean, I've been hyped about generative AI for ages , but now it's like, a bubble waiting to pop ? Okay, okay, I get it... the experts say so .

I have to admit, I was all in on Nvidia and OpenAI , thinking they were gonna change the world . But, like, I'm also guilty of buying into the hype ... who isn't, right? The narrative around AI is straight fire , but what if it's just a bunch of marketing magic ?

I guess what really gets me is how fast this thing went from "cool tech" to "all-conquering superintelligence" . I mean, yeah, I love the possibilities as much as the next fan , but let's not get ahead of ourselves .

All jokes aside, though... buyer beware, indeed !

I'm not sure if I trust this AI craze too much... Reminds me of those dot-com bubbles back in 2000 My cousin invested all his money into a startup that turned out to be a total dud And now everyone's jumping on the AI bandwagon without even knowing what they're getting themselves into It's like the whole thing is just one big hype fest I mean, sure, it's cool and all, but let's not forget that every bubble has a burst waiting to happen We should be cautious with our investments, you know?